GDP flash estimate - 4th quarter of 2012

GDP dropped by 1.1% in 2012

In the Q4 2012 the gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal, and calendar effects decreased by 1.7%, year-on-year, and by 0.2%, quarter-on-quarter, according to the preliminary estimate. In the total for 2012, the GDP was by 1.1% lower than in 2011; the y-o-y decrease was gradually deepening during the year.

In the Q4 2012 the gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for price effects and seasonally adjusted ^*/ decreased by 1.7%, y-o-y, and by 0.2%, q-o-q, according to the preliminary estimate based on partial statistical and administrative data sources.
The y-o-y and q-o-q development was negatively influenced, the same as during the entire year, by construction, which pays for low investment activity of the business enterprise as well as the general government sector. Moreover, the decrease in the Q4 was significantly contributed to also by manufacturing and within that it was especially manufacture of transport equipment. Worse results than in the Q4 2011 were recorded also by agriculture and business services. On the contrary, a positive influence on the GDP development came from the increase in the excise tax on tobacco products as a result of stocking up related to the increase of the tax rate in 2013.
Contributions of individual demand components to the GDP development were highly differentiated – a positive influence of the external trade was not able to compensate the decrease in final consumption expenditure of households and drop of expenditure on fixed capital formation.

In total for 2012, the GDP at constant prices decreased by 1.1%; it was decreasing gradually q-o-q in all the four quarters.
Mainly the following CZ-NACE divisions have not reached the level of gross value added formation in comparison to 2011: construction, agriculture, and financial and insurance activities. Also development of taxes on products contributed negatively to the GDP drop – their y-o-y drop was almost two percent. On the contrary, there was a positive contribution of manufacturing (except for the Q4).
On the demand side of the economy, the overall decrease was contributed to mainly by households, which cut their expenditure by more than 3% at constant prices. Also gross fixed capital formation was lower than in 2011. On the contrary, there was a positive influence of the external trade development throughout the entire year – the overall growth of exports by 4.3% was by 2 percentage points higher than the increase of imports.
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^*/ Unless otherwise stated, all data presented in this News Release are adjusted for price, seasonal, and calendar effects.


Contact person: Jan Heller, Director of the Quarterly National Accounts Department, phone number (+420) 274 052 865, e-mail: jan.heller@csu.gov.cz
Used data sources updated as at: 13 February 2013
Related CZSO web page: /1-aktual-hdp
Next News Release will be published on: 11 March 2013 (quarterly national accounts for the Q4 2012 and the year 2012)