Projekce ekonomické aktivity osob starších 60 let v Česku do roku 2050

Ondřej Nývlt

Demografie, 64(3): 217–234
https://doi.org/10.54694/dem.0306

Abstract

Projections of the economic activity of persons aged 60 and over fall into the category of derived projections that are based on the general population projection. The introductory part of this article outlines the trend in economic activity among the elderly in the Czech Republic since the 1990s. This period was characterised by a steady increase in economic activity among older people. The projection in this article highlights a combination of two fundamental factors that will lead to a significant increase in the number of people who are economically active aged 60 and over. First, the effect of population ageing in the Czech Republic will become apparent after 2030, when the large birth cohorts from the 1970s will reach the age of 60 and over. The intensification of the increase in the rate of economic activity among people aged 60 and over that will result from the age of retirement being raised will be the second reason for the expected increase in the number of economically active among people aged 60 and over. Three projection variants are presented, each of which suggests a different intensity of growth in economic activity among people 60+ depending on the specific input parameters. The middle variant is based on the assumption that the intensity of the increase in economic activity will grow only as a result of the retirement age being raised. The high variant expects the intensity of economic activity to grown even after people reach the age of 65. Conversely, the low variant expects a lower rate of growth in economic activity among people just before they reach retirement age.

Keywords

economic activity, projection, retirement age