Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal - No. 2/2021

Keywords
Dynamic linear model, unemployment rate, inflation rate, signal gap, GDP

Keywords
Central bank, Inflation forecasting, Inflation targeting, Forecasting error

The detection of seasonal effects is essential in economic forecasting. However, the lack of indicators produced
referencing calendars other than the Gregorian system makes it hard to observe the impact of the cultural,
national, and religious days that annually shift in the Gregorian calendar, on the economy. Ramadan, the ninth
month of the lunar-based Hijri calendar, has an impact on many issues, namely the Ramadan effect, due to
the changes in the daily practices of the fasting Muslim people. We checked the existence of the Ramadan
effect on consumer prices and industrial production in Turkey by reconstructing the monthly indicators
in the Hijri calendar and testing the significance of the differences between their increase rates in Ramadan
and other months. We observed that the Food Price Index and prices of some goods increase, and production
decrease in Ramadan, significantly more than in other months. Considering the Ramadan effect would improve
the accuracy of the inflation forecasting and seasonal adjustment models.

Keywords
Consumer prices, Hijri calendar, industrial production, Ramadan effect, seasonal adjustment

In this study, we analyze the direct effect of financial development on poverty in crisis periods for a panel
of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sample composed of six countries (Ivory Coast,
Senegal, Gambia, Ghana, Mali and Benin) during the period 1996–2015, using econometric tests and static
panel data. The main empirical result of this paper is that the financial development indicators and poverty
proxies are significant and negatively correlated. The findings support the fact that financial development
reduces directly poverty by increasing access for poor population to various sources of financing. As a result,
finance makes transactions easier, provides opportunities for smoothing consumption and asset accumulation,
and enables poor households to cope better with shocks, thus reducing the risk of recrudescence into poverty.

Keywords
Poverty, financial development, crisis, panel data, econometric tests, ECOWAS countries

This application study concentrates on causal links, directed from economic parameters to internal Czech
and Slovak tourism for both, short- as well as long-term changes in time series. As tourism forms a fundamental
part of the service industry with many social and environmental connections, the structural equation modelling
(SEM) methodology, i.e. simultaneous equations covering the number of fundamental and derived variables,
is used. Taking into account the market specifics with relative close history, the identical models for countries
are selected, enabling a precise mutual comparison. The data on a ratio of non-residents and residents, together
with nights spent and other parameters, are examined for first as well as seasonal differencing. For instance,
the destination living cost, relative wages and salaries, the balance of payments, labour productivity, trade
openness and harmonized unemployment as exogenous variables, are introduced. Covering short and long
horizons, labour productivity is a fundamental parameter in the Czech Republic. Significant relations proved
differently between countries presented by trade openness as a factor of the global economy. The members
of destination management or other authorities can appreciate the results, concentrated especially on various
accommodation establishments and hospitality.

Keywords
Structural equation modelling, causality, simultaneous equations, tourism

Total fertility rate (TFR) is a standard measure commonly used to estimate fertility levels and trends. However,
TFR is a period measure and does not offer reasons for observed variations in fertility rates and trends. Using
data from the 2017 Ghana Maternal Health Survey (GMHS), this study examines current fertility levels
and trends of ever-married women and employs a generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model to analyze
the determinants of fertility. Findings suggest that the current fertility level of 5.4 for ever-married women
is high. The results also reveal that age at first marriage, educational level, household wealth, area of residence,
use of contraceptives; and ownership and use of a bank account are significant determinants of total fertility
(p<0.05) and are thus factors that affect the fertility levels of women. The study concludes that the GPR analysis
provides a clearer picture of the nature and determinants of fertility compared to the standard TFR analysis.

Keywords
Total fertility, generalized Poisson regression model, determinants, sub-Saharan Africa