Business cycle survey - April 2013

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased in April. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 2.9 points compared to March. Entrepreneurs confidence indicator decreased, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence decreased in industry, in construction and in trade; in selected services decreased slightly. Confidence of consumers decreased too m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and entrepreneurs confidence indicator are lower; consumer confidence indicator is higher, compared to April 2012.

In industry , in April, the assessment of current overall economic situation almost unchanged. The assessment of current total and foreign demand decreased. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods increased. Production capacity utilization in manufacturing industry increased in April and reached 82.1%; respondents estimate they have work secured a slightly more than in the previous quarter. Most important barrier of production still is insufficient demand; it was stated by more than half of respondents. For the next three months, respondents still expect no changes in the development of production activity and a slight increase in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months are slightly higher than in March. All in all, confidence in industry decreased, compare to March, and it is still lower y-o-y.

The survey on investment activity taken among manufacturing enterprises suggests that after a slight decrease in 2012, the level of investment should increase by about 1 % in 2013. It refers predominantly to a renewal of production equipment and less to an extension of production capacities and introducing new technologies.

In construction, in April, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand decreased, compared to March. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of construction activity and a no changes in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased, m-o-m. Overall, confidence in construction decreased, compared to March, and it is lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The stocks did not change. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased, compared to March. In April, confidence in trade decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in April, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change, m-o-m. The assessment of demand decreased in April, but its expectations for the next three months did not change. For the next three months, expectations of total economic situation development decreased, for the next six months increased, compared to March. All in all, confidence in selected services decreased slightly m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased in April, m-o-m, but it is higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in April indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing did not change, m-o-m. Worries about increase in unemployment increased, compared to March. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased slightly. Respondents are still afraid of rise in prices and they do not consider making major purchases.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: April 18, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: May 24, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr042413.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
⇩ Graph 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry
⇩ Graph 5 Limits of Production in Industry
⇩ Graph 6 Limits of Production in Construction