Business cycle survey - May 2019

Overall confidence in economy decreased. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator), that is stated by basic indices, decreased by 1.4 points to 95.7 compared to April. Confidence of entrepreneurs decreased by 2.0 points to 93.8, m-o-m. Consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.3 points to 105.1, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are lower compared to May 2018.

In industry, in May, confidence indicator decreased by 2.2 points to 91.2 The assessment of current total and foreign demand almost unchanged, m-o-m. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged too. The assessment of overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of production activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months increased slightly, m-o-m. Overall, confidence in industry is lower, y-o-y.

In May, confidence in construction increased by 1.0 points to 106.9. The assessment of total demand for construction work increased slightly, compared to April. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change, m-o-m. Respondents expect for the next three months a slight decrease in the development of construction activity and no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased. All in all, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In May, confidence in trade increased slightly by 0.5 points to 94.0. The assessment of overall economic situation of the respondents increased, m-o-m. The stocks increased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months almost unchanged. Overall, confidence in trade is lower, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in May, confidence decreased by 2.5 points to 94.9. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged compared to April. In May, the assessment of demand decreased as well as its expectation for the next three months. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the employment too. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased. All in all, confidence in selected services is lower, y-o-y.

In May, consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.3 points to 105.1, m-o-m. The survey taken among consumers in May indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months equally afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing did not change, compared to April. Worries about rise in the unemployment almost unchanged, m-o-m. The respondents concern about rises in prices almost unchanged too. The share of respondents intending to save money increased. Overall, consumer confidence indicator is lower, y-o-y.

____________________
Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420274052680, e-mail: juraj.lojka@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
End of data collection: May 17, 2019
Next News Release: June 24, 2019

This press release was not edited for language.

Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.

Attachments

⇩ akpr052419.docx
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Chart 1.1 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2008–2019)
⇩ Chart 1.2 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (1998–2019)
⇩ Chart 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – baes indices, seasonally adjusted (2006–2019)
⇩ Chart 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2006–2019)
⇩ Chart 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted