Business cycle survey - January 2013

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased slightly in January. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 0.3 points compared to December. Entrepreneurs confidence indicator increased slightly, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence unchanged in construction. In industry and in trade decreased slightly; in selected services increased slightly. Confidence of consumers decreased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are lower, compared to January 2012.

In industry , in January, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased, m-o.m. The assessment of current total and foreign demand unchanged. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods increased slightly. Production capacity utilization in manufacturing industry declined in January and reached 80.4 %; respondents estimate they have work secured by contracts almost the same as in the previous quarter. Most important barrier of production still is insufficient demand; it was stated by more than half of respondents. For the next three months, respondents expect no changes in the development of production activity as well as in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months decreased, for the next six months they are slightly higher than in December. All in all, confidence in industry decreased slightly, compare to December, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in January, the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged m-o-m. The assessment of total demand didn´t change too, compared to December. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight decrease in the development of construction activity and no changes in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months almost unchanged, m-o-m. Overall, confidence in construction didn´t change, compare to December, and it is higher y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation didn´t change m-o-m. The stocks decreased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased, compared to December. In January, confidence in trade decreased m-o-m, and it is the same y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in January, the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged, m-o-m. The assessment of demand decreased in January, but its expectations for the next three months increased. For the next three months, expectations of total economic situation development didn’t change, for the next six months decreased, compared to December. All in all, confidence in selected services increased slightly m-o-m, and it is higher y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased in January, and it is lower y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in January indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation, as well as their own financial standing, worries about increase in unemployment didn´t change, compared to December. The share of respondents intending to save money didn´t change too. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: January 18, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: February 25, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr012413.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
⇩ Graph 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry
⇩ Graph 5 Limits of Production in Industry
⇩ Graph 6 Limits of Production in Construction