Business cycle survey - July 2013

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased slightly in July. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 0.3 points compared to June. Entrepreneurs confidence did not change, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in industry and in construction; in trade increased slightly and in selected services decreased. Confidence of consumers decreased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher; entrepreneurs confidence indicator is lower, compared to July 2012.

In industry , in July, the assessment of current overall economic situation did not change. The assessment of current total and foreign demand increased slightly. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. Production capacity utilization in manufacturing industry decreased slightly in July and reached 81.0%; respondents estimate they have work secured equally as in the previous quarter. Most important barrier of production still is insufficient demand; it was stated by 60% of respondents. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months are lower than in June, fort the next six months increased slightly. All in all, confidence in industry increased, compared to June, and it is higher y-o-y.

In construction, in July, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand increased too, compare to June. For the next three months, respondents expect no changes in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. In July, expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months are almost the same, for the next six they are lower. Overall, confidence in construction increased, compared to June, but it is lower y-o-y.

In trade , in July, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased slightly m-o-m. The stocks decreased. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased slightly, compared to June. In July, confidence in trade increased slightly m-o-m, but it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in July, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased, m-o-m. The assessment of demand decreased in July as well as its expectations for the next three months. For the next three months expectations of total economic situation development decreased, for the next six months almost unchanged, compared to June. All in all, confidence in selected services decreased m-o-m and it is still lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased in July, m-o-m, but it is higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in July indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months equally afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing almost unchanged too, m-o-m. Worries about increase in unemployment increased slightly, compared to June. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased slightly, the intention to acquire consumer durables almost unchanged, m-o-m.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: July 18, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: August 26, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr072413.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
⇩ Graph 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry
⇩ Graph 5 Limits of Production in Industry
⇩ Graph 6 Limits of Production in Construction