Business cycle survey - June 2017

Overall confidence in domestic economy almost unchanged in June. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator), that is stated by basic indices, decreased very slightly by 0.1 points to 97.1 m-o-m. Confidence of entrepreneurs increased slightly by 0.3 points to 95.2 compared to May. Consumer confidence indicator decreased by 2.2 points to 106.4, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to June 2016.

In industry, in June, confidence increased by 0.7 points to 94.3 after a six-months decline. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents did not change m-o-m. The assessment of current total and foreign demand almost unchanged. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods did not change. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and no changes in the unemployment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months increased, for the next six months almost unchanged, compared to May. All in all, confidence in industry is the same as in June 2016.

In construction, in June, confidence increased by 4.1 points to 81,7. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged m-o-m. The assessment of total demand for construction work did not change, compared to May. Respondents expect for the next three months an increase in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months almost unchanged. Overall, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In June, confidence in trade increased by 2 points to 100.1. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged m-o-m. The stocks almost unchanged too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased, compared to May. Overall, confidence in trade is higher, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in June, confidence decreased slightly by 0.7 points to 97.0. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change compared to May. In June, the assessment of demand decreased slightly, its expectations for the next three months did not change, m-o-m. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decrased. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher, y-o-y.

In June, consumer confidence indicator decreased by 2.2 points to 106.2, m-o-m, and it is still higher, y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in June indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months equally afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing almost unchanged, compared to May. Worries about rise in the unemployment increased, m-o-m. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased, compared to the previous month. The respondents concern about rises in prices increased.

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Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Jiří Obst, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.
End of data collection: June 19, 2017
Related publication: 070006-17 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
(https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/business-cycle-surveys)
Next News Release: July 24, 2017

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr062617.docx
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1.1 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2008–2017)
⇩ Graph 1.2 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (1998–2017)
⇩ Graph 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – baes indices, seasonally adjusted (2006–2017)
⇩ Graph 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2006–2017)
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted