Business cycle survey - September 2011

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased m-o-m as well as y-o-y again in September. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 2.4 points compared to August, due to a decrease in the confidence of both entrepreneurs and consumer. Confidence of entrepreneurs decreased by 2.7 points, m-o-m; confidence of consumers decreased by 1 point, m-o-m. Compared to September 2010, the composite confidence indicator is 4.7 points down; if compared to its values during recession (in second half of 2008 and in 2009), it remained higher.

Business confidence indicator decreased by 2.7 points in September. Confidence decreased in industry, trade, and in selected services; in construction it increased, even though it remains low. Compared to September 2010, the confidence of entrepreneurs is 3.2 points down.

In industry, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased in September. The assessment of current total demand decreased slightly, assessment of foreign demand decreased. According to respondents, stocks hardly changed. For next three months, respondents expect a slowdown in the development of production activity by almost stable employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower than in August. All in all the confidence in industry decreased by 1.3 point; compared to September 2010 it is 4 points down.

In construction, the assessment of current economic situation improved m-o-m in September. Still low assessment of total demand improved a bit. For the period of the next three months respondents expect an improvement in the development of construction activity and employment. Respondents estimate that they have work secured by contracts for 8.4 months ahead. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are better than in August. Overall, low confidence in construction increased by 2.5 points m-o-m in September and it is 4.5 points up, y-o-y.

In trade, the assessment of current economic situation in September decreased, compared to August. According to respondents, in September, the finished goods stocks increased markedly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the period of the next three months are lower than in August, for next six months they are almost the same. In September, the confidence in trade decreased from high value in August by 8 points, m-o-m, and it is 1 point down y-o-y.

In selected services, according to respondents, the assessment of current economic situation decreased slightly compared to August. The assessment of demand as well as its expectations for the next three months decreased too. For next three months, expectations of total economic situation development are lower than in August, for next six months they hardly changed. Overall, the confidence in selected services decreased by 4.7 points, m-o-m, to be 3.7 points down y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased by 1 point compared to August and it is 11.2 points down compared to September 2010. The survey taken among consumers in September indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months still afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as of their own financial standing. The share of respondents expecting rises in unemployment increased a bit in September. Percentage of respondents planning to save money decreased. Respondents again consider present times not convenient for saving and are still afraid of rises in prices.

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Note
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements
of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: 20 September 2011
Related publication: 1201-10 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction,
Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: 24 October 2011
Not edited for language
Note: Long term average is usually calculated over the period from 1990, if harmonised data are available (for the Czech Republic, it is an average since 1993).

Published: 26.09.2011
The data are valid as of the release date of the publication.