Business cycle survey - May 2013

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased in May. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 1.7 points compared to April . Entrepreneurs confidence indicator increased too, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in industry and in trade; in construction increased slightly; in selected services did not change . Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and entrepreneurs confidence indicator are lower; consumer confidence indicator is higher, compared to May 2012.

In industry , in May, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased. The assessment of current total demand almost unchanged, the assessment of foreign demand increased. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are higher than in April. All in all, confidence in industry increased, compare to April, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in May, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand almost unchanged, compare to April. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight increase in the development of construction activity and a no changes in the employment. In May, expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months increased slightly, for the next six months are almost the same. Overall, confidence in construction increased slightly, compared to April, and it is lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change m-o-m. The stocks did not change too. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased, compared to April. In May, confidence in trade increased m-o-m, but it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in May, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased, m-o-m. The assessment of demand increased in May, but its expectations for the next three months almost unchanged. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development decreased, compared to April. All in all, confidence in selected services did not change m-o-m and it is still lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in May, m-o-m, and it is higher too y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in May indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing decreased too, m-o-m. Worries about increase in unemployment decreased, compared to April. The share of respondents intending to save money increased slightly, also the intention to acquire consumer durables increased slightly.
Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: May 20, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: June 24, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr052413.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison