Business cycle survey - January 2012

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased m-o-m in January. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 2.5 points compared to December, due to increase in the confidence of both entrepreneurs and consumers. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in industry, trade, and selected services; in construction it decreased further. After last year’s gradual decreasing, composite confidence indicator still exceeds its values during recession even though it is lower y-o-y.

In industry, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased slightly. Even though respondents still state demand as main barrier of production, assessment of current total and foreign demand improved. In spite of a slight decrease in production capacity utilisation and increased stocks in January, respondents expect that higher export opportunities will contribute to an increase in the development of production activity and stable employment for next three months. Expectations of general economic situation development for next three months are slightly higher, for next six months they are lower. All in all, confidence in industry increased m-o-m, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, the assessment of current economic situation did not change again and already low assessment of total demand decreased further. Respondents expect no changes in the development of construction activity and a decrease in employment. Respondents’ estimates of months of work secured decreased a bit. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased slightly due to upcoming construction season. Low confidence in construction decreased, m-o-m, to be lower y-o-y, too.

In trade, the assessment of current economic situation increased. The stocks decreased. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three months are lower than in December, for next six months they are higher. Confidence in trade increased slightly, m-o-m, but it is a bit down y-o-y.

In selected services, the assessment of current economic situation increased, as well as the assessment of demand and its expectations for the next three months. For next three months, expectations of total economic situation development are lower than in December, for next six months they are higher. Confidence in selected services increased, m-o-m, to be lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased after significant drops in previous months, but it is markedly down y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in January indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing. The share of respondents expecting rises in unemployment decreased slightly, too. Percentage of respondents intending to save money increased; less than a half of households still state that concerning their current financial situation, they save money.

Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: January 18, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: February 24, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr012412.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
⇩ Graph 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry
⇩ Graph 5 Limits of Production in Industry
⇩ Graph 6 Limits of Production in Construction