Business cycle survey - December 2015

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased slightly in December. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 0.6 points m-o-m. Confidence of entrepreneurs increased very slightly by 0.2 points compared to November. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased slightly in selected services, in industry did not change, in trade decreased slightly and in construction decreased. Consumer confidence indicator increased by 2 points, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to December 2014, entrepreneurs confidence indicator is lower.

In industry, in December, confidence did not change. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged. The assessment of current total and foreign demand did not change. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect no changes in the development of production activity and an increase in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months increased, compared to November. All in all, confidence in industry is lower, y-o-y.

In December, confidence in construction decreased by 2 points. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased, m-o-m. The assessment of total demand for construction work did not change, compared to November. Respondents expect for the next three months a decrease in the development of construction activity and in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months decreased, for the next six months did not change. Overall, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In December, confidence in trade decreased slightly by 0.4 points, m-o-m. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents decreased slightly m-o-m. The stocks did not change. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as months did not change too, compared to November. Overall, confidence in trade is higher, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in December, confidence increased slightly by 1 point. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased slightly, m-o-m. The assessment of demand in December increased slightly too and its expectations for the next three months did not change. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three months decreased, for the next six months almost unchanged, compared to November. All in all, confidence in selected services is the same, y-o-y.

In December, consumer confidence indicator increased by 2 points, m-o-m, and it is still higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in December indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months a little less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing decreased slightly. Worries about rise in the unemployment decreased m-o-m. The share of respondents intending to save money almost unchanged, compared to November. The respondents concern about rises in prices almost unchanged too.

________________________________
Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Jiří Obst, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: December 18, 2015
Related publication: 070008-15 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services (https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/business-cycle-surveys)
Next News Release: January 25, 2016

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr122815.docx
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1.1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (2008 - 2015)
⇩ Graph 1.2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (1998 - 2015)
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
Additional information