Business cycle survey - December 2014

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased in December. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 1.5 points, m-o-m. Confidence of entrepreneurs increased by 1.5 points too, compared to November. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in construction, in trade and in selected services, in industry increased slightly. Consumer confidence indicator increased. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to December 2013.

In industry, in December, confidence increased slightly by 1 point. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents did not change. The assessment of current total and foreign almost unchanged. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged too. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight increase in the development of production activity and an increase in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months increased slightly compared to November. All in all, confidence in industry is higher, y-o-y.

In December, confidence in construction increased by 2.5 points due to the continued favourable weather. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand increased, compared to November. Respondents expect for the next three months an increase in the development of construction activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased. Overall, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In December, confidence in trade increased by 5.3 points, m-o-m. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased slightly m-o-m. The stocks almost unchanged. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased, compared to November. Overall, confidence in trade is higher, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in December, confidence increased by 1.4 points. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased slightly, m-o-m. The assessment of demand in December increased slightly and its expectations for the next three months increased. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development almost unchanged, compared to November. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher, y-o-y.

In December, consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.5 points, m-o-m, and it is higher y-o-y too. The survey taken among consumers in December indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months slightly less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation m-o-m. Worries about their own financial standing did not change. Worries about rise in the unemployment almost unchanged compared to November. The share of respondents intending to save money almost unchanged too, m-o-m. The respondents concern about rises in prices is slightly higher, compared to the previous month.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Jiří Obst, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: December 17, 2014
Related publication: 070006-14 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: January 26, 2015

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr112414.docx
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1.1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (2008 - 2014)
⇩ Graph 1.2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators (1998 - 2014)
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison