Business cycle survey - February 2012

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased m-o-m in February again. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 0.8 points compared to January, mainly due to increase in the entrepreneurs confidence. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in industry and in selected services; in trade decreased; in construction remained unchanged. Composite confidence indicator still exceeds its values during recession 2009 even though it is lower y-o-y.

In industry , in February, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased slightly again. The assessment of current total and foreign demand improved too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods decreased due to the previous month. For the next three months, respondents expect a slowdown in the development of production activity compared to a slight increase in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are higher than in January. All in all, confidence in industry increased m-o-m, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in February, the assessment of current economic situation increased. Still low assessment of total demand in January slightly improved, compare to January. Respondents expect a slight increase in the development of construction activity and a slight decrease in the employment. Works secured by contracts almost unchanged. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased slightly due to upcoming construction season. Overall, low confidence in construction remained the same m-o-m and is still lower y-o-y too.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation didn´t change, compare to January. The stocks decreased. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three months are slightly higher compared to fall in January, for next six months they are lower. In February, confidence in trade decreased slightly m-o-m, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In selected services , the assessment of current economic situation didn´t change. The assessment of demand and its expectations for the next three months increased. For next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development are higher than in January. Confidence in selected services increased m-o-m, and it is 1 point higher y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased slightly in February, but it is still markedly down y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in February again indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months slightly less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing. Percentage of respondents expecting an increase in unemployment decreased slightly, too. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased; less than a half of households still state that concerning their current financial situation, they save money.

Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: February 20, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: March 26, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr022412.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison