Business cycle survey - December 2012

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased in December. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 1.1 points compared to November. Among entrepreneurs confidence almost unchanged only in selected services. In construction, in trade, and in industry increased. Confidence of consumers almost unchanged m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and entrepreneurs confidence indicator are lower, compared to December 2011, consumer confidence indicator is higher.

In industry , in December, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased. The assessment of current total and current foreign demand almost unchanged, compared to November. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged too. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and a slight decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months increase, for the next six months they are lower than in November. All in all, confidence in industry mainly due to expectations of an increase in the development of production activity increased, compared to previous month, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in December, the assessment of current economic situation increased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand almost unchanged, compared to November. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight decrease in the development of construction activity and a slight increase in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased slightly, m-o-m. Overall, confidence in construction increased slightly, compare to November, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged m-o-m. The stocks decreased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months grew, compared to November. In December, confidence in trade increased m-o-m, and it is higher y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in December, the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged, m-o-m. The assessment of demand increased in December, but its expectations for the next three months decreased. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development increased slightly, compared to November. All in all, confidence in selected services almost unchanged m-o-m, and it is higher y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator almost unchanged in December, and it is higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in December indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months a little less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation, m-o-m. Worries about their own financial standing as well as of an increase in unemployment didn´t change, compared to November. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: December 17, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: January 24, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr122712.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison