Business cycle survey - June 2012

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased again in June. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 0.8 points compared to May. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased slightly only in trade again; in construction, in selected services and in industry declined. Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator is lower, compare to June 2011.

In industry , in June, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased. The assessment of current total and foreign demand decreased slightly. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods didn´t change. For the next three months, respondents expect a decline in the development of production activity as well as a decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower than in May. All in all, confidence in industry decreased, compare to May, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in June, the assessment of current economic situation decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand decreased too, compare to May. Respondents expect almost no changes in the development of construction activity and a slight increase in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are higher than in May, due to construction season. Overall, in June, confidence in construction decreased and it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation increased, compare to May. The stocks increased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three as well as six months are lower, compare to May. In June, confidence in trade increased slightly m-o-m, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In selected services , in June, the assessment of current economic situation decreased, compare to May. The assessment of demand decreased, but its expectations for the next three months increased. For the next three months, expectations of total economic situation development are higher compare to May, for the next six months they are lower. Confidence in selected services decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in June, and it is still lower y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in June indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing, compare to May. Percentage of respondents expecting an increase in unemployment increased. The share of respondents intending to save money increased too. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: June 20, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: July 24, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr062512.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison