Business cycle survey - June 2013

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased slightly in June. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 0.5 points compared to May. Entrepreneurs confidence indicator increased too, m-o-m. Among entrepreneurs confidence decreased slightly in industry and in construction; in trade and in selected services increased. Confidence of consumers increased slightly m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator and entrepreneurs confidence indicator are lower; consumer confidence indicator is higher, compared to June 2012.

In industry , in June, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased slightly. The assessment of current total demand unchanged, the assessment of foreign demand decreased slightly. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight decrease in the development of production activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months are higher, fort the next six months are lower than in May. All in all, confidence in industry decreased slightly, compared to May and it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in June, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand increased slightly, compare to May. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. In June, expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six are almost the same. Overall, confidence in construction decreased slightly, compared to May, and it is lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased m-o-m. The stocks decreased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months decreased, compared to May. In June, confidence in trade increased m-o-m, but it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in June, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased, m-o-m. The assessment of demand almost unchanged in June, its expectations for the next three months almost unchanged too. For the next three months expectations of total economic situation development increased, for the next six months almost unchanged, compared to May. All in all, confidence in selected services increased m-o-m, but it is still lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased slightly in June, m-o-m, and it is higher too y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in June indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months a little more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing almost unchanged, m-o-m. Worries about increase in unemployment increased slightly, compared to May. The share of respondents intending to save money increased, the intention to acquire consumer durables almost unchanged, m-o-m.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: June 18, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: July 24, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr062413.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison