Business cycle survey - September 2012

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased slightly in September. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 0.2 points compared to August. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in selected services and in trade; in construction and in industry decreased. Confidence of consumers decreased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are lower, compare to September 2011.

In industry , in September, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased slightly. The assessment of current total demand didn´t change, the assessment of foreign demand increased. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods increased slightly. For the next three months, respondents expect no changes in the development of production activity and a decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months didn´t change, for the next six months are higher than in August. All in all, confidence in industry decreased, compare to August, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in September, the assessment of current economic situation decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand almost unchanged, compare to August. For the next three months, respondents expect a decrease in the development of construction activity and in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower. Overall, confidence in construction decreased, compare to August, and it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation increased, compare to August. The stocks decreased. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three months are higher, for the next six months didn´t change, compare to August. In September, confidence in trade increased m-o-m due to the expected improvement at the end of 2012 and it is higher y-o-y.

In selected services , in September, the assessment of current economic situation didn´t change, compare to August. The assessment of demand increased and its expectations for the next three months almost unchanged. For the next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development are higher, compare to August. All in all, confidence in selected services increased m-o-m and it is higher y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased in September, and it is still lower y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in September indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing as well as of an increase in unemployment are higher, compare to August. The share of respondents intending to save money almost unchanged. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: September 19, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: October 24, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr092412.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison