Business cycle survey - May 2012

Overall confidence in domestic economy decreased again in May. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) decreased by 1.6 points compared to April. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased slightly only in trade; in construction, in selected services and in industry declined. Confidence of consumers decreased too. Composite confidence indicator is lower, compare to May 2011.

In industry , in May, the assessment of current overall economic situation decreased. The assessment of current total and foreign demand decreased too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods didn´t change. For the next three months, respondents expect a slight decline in the development of production activity as well as a decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are lower than in April. All in all, confidence in industry decreased, compare to April, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in May, the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged m-o-m. The assessment of total demand decreased, compare to April. Respondents expect a slight improvement in the development of construction activity as well as a slight increase in the employment. Works secured by contracts decreased slightly. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months are lower than in April, for the next six months remained the same. Overall, in May, confidence in construction decreased and it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged, compare to April. The stocks didn´t change too. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three as well as six months are higher, compare to April. In May, confidence in trade increased slightly m-o-m, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In selected services , in May, the assessment of current economic situation increased, compare to April. The assessment of demand decreased as well as its expectations for the next three months. For next three as well as six months, expectations of total economic situation development decreased, compare to April. Confidence in selected services decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased in May, and it is still lower y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in May indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation as well as in their own financial standing. Percentage of respondents expecting an increase in unemployment slightly decreased. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased too. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: May 18, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: June 25, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr052412.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison