Business cycle survey - July 2021

The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) – in the basis index form – decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 99.7, m-o-m. Both components decreased. The business confidence indicator fell by 4.4 percentage points to 99.3 (m-o-m), and the consumer confidence indicator by 3.6 percentage points to 101.9. Compared to June last year, the composite indicator, the business indicator and the consumer confidence indicator are higher.

In industry, business confidence decreased significantly, m-o-m. The confidence indicator fell by 9.5 points to 98.7. The share of industrial enterprises evaluating their current total demand as insufficient decreased, m-o-m. The stock of finished products increased compared to July 2020. The share of entrepreneurs expecting the growth rate of production activity for the next three months has decreased. The main barriers to production growth are lack of materials and industrial equipment, which was reported by approximately 33% of respondents (the highest value from the beginning of the survey), followed by lack of employees limiting 20% of respondents. On the other hand, insufficient demand has been perceived as a barrier by two entrepreneurs since October 2007. The confidence in the industry increased y-o-y.

The utilization of production capacities of enterprises in the manufacturing industry reached 88% in July. Entrepreneurs estimate securing work by contracts (12.8 months) higher in comparison with the previous quarter.

Confidence of entrepreneurs in the construction decreased, m-o-m. The confidence indicator declined by 1.8 points to 114.0. The share of entrepreneurs evaluating their current demand for construction work as insufficient slightly increase, m-o-m. Respondents do not expect an increase in the current number of employees in the next three months. Entrepreneurs expect significantly price rising construction works. The main barriers to production growth are staff shortage (approximately 35% of respondents) and insufficient demand (approximately 18% of respondents). The confidence in the construction industry is higher.

Confidence in the trade sector is at the same level. The confidence indicator stagnates at the 104.7 value. The share of entrepreneurs evaluating the overall economic situation little increased, m-o-m. The entrepreneurs who expect to get better the economic situation for the next three months has slightly decreased. The stock of goods did not change, m-o-m. Entrepreneurs expect an increase in sales prices in the next three months. Confidence in trade is significantly higher, y-o-y.

In the selected service sector (including the banking sector), the confidence indicator is the same, m-o-m. The confidence indicator in July stagnates at 97.6 value. The assessment of the current economic situation has slightly decreased, m-o-m. The share of entrepreneurs expecting an improvement in demand in the next three months stagnated. Most respondents in services (29%) did not have any barrier to production growth, 25% of respondents mention insufficient demand. Confidence in selected services is significantly higher, y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased, m-o-m. The confidence indicator decreased by 3.6 points to 101.9. The share of respondents expecting a deterioration in the overall economic situation for the next twelve months increased. After three months decreasing, concerns about rising unemployment have increased. Consumers' fears of a deterioration in their financial situation almost have slightly increased. The share of the respondents who are worried about the rising prices was still high. The number of respondents who expect to save some money in the next twelve months was the same as in June. Consumer confidence is higher, y-o-y.

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Data for the business and consumer part of the business cycle surveys were collected from 1^st to 19^th July 2021.

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Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420731439291, e-mail: juraj.lojka@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420604815440, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, Data Collect consumer survey (https://www.datacollect.cz)
End of data collection: July 19, 2021
Next News Release: August 24, 2021

This press release wasn´t edited for language.

Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.

Attachments

⇩ akpr072621.docx
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Chart 1 Confidence Indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2003–2021)
⇩ Chart 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2003–2021)
⇩ Chart 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2003–2021)
⇩ Chart 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted (2007–2021)
⇩ Chart 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry (2003–2021)
⇩ Chart 5 Limits of Production in Industry (2005–2021)
⇩ Chart 6 Limits of Production in Construction (2005–2021)
⇩ Chart 7 Limits of Production in Selected Services (2005–2021)