Business cycle survey - September 2013

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased in September. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 3.2 points compared to August. Confidence of entrepreneurs in all sectors of the economy increased, m-o-m. Confidence of consumers increased too m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are higher, compared to September 2012.

In industry , in September, the assessment of current overall economic situation increased. The assessment of current total demand increased slightly, the assessment of foreign demand increased too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of production activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months are higher than in August. All in all, confidence in industry increased, compared to August, and it is higher y-o-y.

In construction, in September, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents decreased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand in August increased slightly, compared to August. For the next three months, respondents expect an increase in the development of construction activity and in the employment too. In September, expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months increased slightly. Overall, confidence in construction increased, compared to August, but it is lower y-o-y.

In trade , in September, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased m-o-m. The stocks did not change. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months did not change, for the next six months increased, compared to August. In September, confidence in trade increased slightly m-o-m, but it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector) , in September, the assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change, m-o-m. The assessment of demand in September and its expectations for the next three months increased. For the next three months expectations of total economic situation development increased slightly, for the next six months increased too, compared to August. All in all, confidence in selected services increased slightly m-o-m and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator increased in September, m-o-m, and it is still higher y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in September indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about increase in unemployment almost unchanged, compared to August. Worries about their own financial standing decreased, m-o-m. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices. The share of respondents intending to save money did not change compared to August as well as the intention to acquire consumer durables.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: September 18, 2013
Related publication: 1201-13 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: October 24, 2013

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr092413.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison