Business cycle survey - October 2012

Overall confidence in domestic economy increased slightly in October. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator) increased by 0.5 points compared to September. Among entrepreneurs confidence increased in industry and in construction; in selected services and in trade decreased. Confidence of consumers increased m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are lower, compare to October 2011.

In industry , in October, the assessment of current overall economic situation almost unchanged. The assessment of current total demand increased slightly, the assessment of current foreign increased too. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods didn´t change. Production capacity utilization in manufacturing industry increased in October and reached 82 %; respondents estimate they have work secured by contracts almost the same as in the previous quarter. Most important barrier of production still is insufficient demand; it was stated by more than half of respondents. For the next three months, respondents expect a slightly decline in the development of production activity as well as a decrease in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months didn’t change, for the next six months they are lower than in September. All in all, confidence in industry increased, compare to September, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In construction, in October, the assessment of current economic situation increased m-o-m. The assessment of total demand increased too, compare to September. For the next three months, respondents expect no changes in the development of construction activity and decrease in the employment. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months they are higher. Overall, confidence in construction increased, compare to September, but it is still lower y-o-y.

In trade , the assessment of current economic situation decreased slightly, compare to September. The stocks almost unchanged. Expectations of the economic situation development for next three months decrease slightly, for the next six months didn´t change, compare to September. In October, confidence in trade decreased slightly m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

In selected services , in October, the assessment of current economic situation almost unchanged, compare to September. The assessment of demand decreased as well as its expectations for the next three months. For the next three months, expectations of total economic situation development almost unchanged, for the next six months they are higher, compare to September. All in all, confidence in selected services decreased m-o-m, and it is lower y-o-y.

Consumer confidence indicator decreased in October, but it is still lower y-o-y. The survey taken among consumers in October indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months less afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their own financial standing as well as of an increase in unemployment are slightly lower, compare to September. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased. Respondents are still afraid of rises in prices.

Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, director
Contact person: Marie Hörmannová, tel. +420274052049, e-mail: marie.hormannova@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Praha consumer survey
Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN
End of data collection: October 18, 2012
Related publication: 1201-12 Business Cycle Survey in Enterprises of Industry, Construction, Trade and Selected Services
Next News Release: November 26, 2012

This press release was not edited for language.

Attachments

⇩ akpr102412.doc
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 1 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators
⇩ Graph 2 Seasonally Adjusted Confidence Indicators in Industry, Construction, Trade, and in Selected Services
⇩ Graph 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison
⇩ Graph 4 Production Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing Industry
⇩ Graph 5 Limits of Production in Industry
⇩ Graph 6 Limits of Production in Construction