Business cycle survey - February 2019

Overall confidence in economy increased very slightly. The composite confidence indicator (economic sentiment indicator), that is stated by basic indices, increased by 0,2 points to 98.2 compared to January. Confidence of entrepreneurs increased slightly by 0.8 points to 96.5, m-o-m. Consumer confidence indicator decreased by 2.8 points to 106.4, m-o-m. Composite confidence indicator, entrepreneurs confidence indicator and consumer confidence indicator are lower compared to February 2018.

In industry, in February, confidence indicator increased slightly by 0.3 points to 93.4. The assessment of current overall economic situation of the respondents increased slightly, m-o-m. The assessment of current total demand almost unchanged, the assessment of foreign demand increased slightly. According to respondents, stocks of finished goods almost unchanged. For the next three months, respondents expect almost no changes in the development of production activity and no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three months almost unchanged, for the next six months increased, compared to January. Overall, confidence in industry is still lower, y-o-y.

In construction, in February, confidence decreased by 2.0 points to 106.4. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents increased slightly, m-o-m. The assessment of total demand for construction work decreased slightly, compared to January. Respondents expect for the next three months a decrease in the development of construction activity and almost no changes in the employment. Expectations of general economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased. All in all, confidence in construction is higher, y-o-y.

In February, confidence in trade decreased by 1.3 points to 94.3. The assessment of overall economic situation of the respondents almost unchanged, m-o-m. The stocks did not change. Expectations of the economic situation development for the next three as well as six months decreased. Overall, confidence in trade is lower, y-o-y.

In selected services (incl. banking sector), in February, confidence increased by 1.8 points to 98.8. The assessment of current economic situation of the respondents did not change compared to January. In February, the assessment of demand almost unchanged, its expectation for the next three months increased. Expectations of total economic situation development for the next three months increased, for the next six months did not change. All in all, confidence in selected services is higher, y-o-y.

In February, consumer confidence indicator decreased by 2.8 points to 106.4, m-o-m. The survey taken among consumers in February indicates that consumers are for the next twelve months more afraid of a decrease in the overall economic situation. Worries about their financial standing almost unchanged, compared to January. Worries about rise in the unemployment almost unchanged too, m-o-m. The respondents concern about rises in prices decreased slightly. The share of respondents intending to save money decreased. Overall, consumer confidence indicator is lower, y-o-y.

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Notes:
Responsible manager: Juraj Lojka, Director of Business Statistics Coordination and Business Cycle Surveys Department, tel. +420274052680, e-mail: juraj.lojka@czso.cz
Contact person: Jiri Obst, Head of Business Cycle Surveys Unit, tel. +420274054116, e-mail: jiri.obst@czso.cz
Data source: CZSO business survey, GfK Czech consumer survey
End of data collection: February 18, 2019
Next News Release: March 25, 2019

This press release was not edited for language.

Business and Consumers Surveys are co-financed by grant agreements of the European Commission DG ECFIN.

Attachments

⇩ akpr022519.docx
Annexes:
⇩ Table 1 Confidence Indicators – basic indices
⇩ Table 2 Balances of Confidence Indicators
⇩ Chart 1.1 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (2008–2019)
⇩ Chart 1.2 Confidence indicators – base indices, seasonally adjusted (1998–2019)
⇩ Chart 2.1 Confidence Indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services – baes indices, seasonally adjusted (2006–2019)
⇩ Chart 2.2 Balances of seasonally adjusted confidence indicators for industry, construction, trade, and in selected services (2006–2019)
⇩ Chart 3 Economic Sentiment Indicators – international comparison, seasonally adjusted